工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)械板塊(kuai)8 月表(biao)現(xian)弱于(yu)大(da)盤。工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)械8 月份跌幅-6.22%，同(tong)期上證綜(zong)指(zhi)跌幅為-5.46%，滬深300 指(zhi)數跌幅為-4.81%。工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)械板塊(kuai)的(de)表(biao)現(xian)弱于(yu)大(da)盤。目前工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)(ji)械板塊(kuai)整體(ti)PE 約在15-16 倍(bei)左右，整體(ti)PB 約3.2 倍(bei)左右，估值水平在歷
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徐工(gong)機械(xie)(xie)20.92+0.291.41%山推(tui)股份(fen)13.34+0.141.06%柳 工(gong)17.10+0.140.83%三一重(zhong)工(gong)15.50+0.090.58%中(zhong)聯重(zhong)科10.10+0.010.10%史平(ping)均水平(ping)附近。盡管工(gong)程機械(xie)(xie)板塊估值相對(dui)合理，但是市場(chang)對(dui)需求下滑的擔心嚴(yan)重(zhong)影響了工(gong)程機械(xie)(xie)板塊的表現。
固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投資(zi)(zi)(zi)增速(su)(su)下(xia)滑(hua)趨勢比(bi)較明(ming)顯。1-7 月份，固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產累計(ji)(ji)(ji)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)15.2萬(wan)億(yi)，同比(bi)增長(chang)25.4%，新增固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投資(zi)(zi)(zi)累計(ji)(ji)(ji)完成(cheng)額為(wei)6.1 萬(wan)億(yi)，同比(bi)增速(su)(su)為(wei)33.2%。而1-6 月的(de)固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產累計(ji)(ji)(ji)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)和(he)新增固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投資(zi)(zi)(zi)累計(ji)(ji)(ji)完成(cheng)額同比(bi)增速(su)(su)分別為(wei)27%，38.4%，固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投資(zi)(zi)(zi)增速(su)(su)下(xia)滑(hua)的(de)趨勢明(ming)顯。
保障(zhang)房建設(she)對沖(chong)了部分(fen)商品房投資(zi)下(xia)降的需求，但由于鐵路系列黑天鵝事件的影(ying)響，鐵路投資(zi)的增速大幅下(xia)降。
工(gong)程機械7 月(yue)份銷量繼(ji)續下(xia)滑。7 月(yue)份，挖(wa)掘(jue)機銷量7,665 臺，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)14.49%，裝載機銷量16,167 臺，同(tong)比(bi)增長2.17%，環比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)15.97%。
起重機(ji)2,828 臺，同比下降(jiang)19.66%，推土機(ji)銷量(liang)761 臺，同比下降(jiang)20.81%。整體而(er)言(yan)，工程機(ji)械依然出(chu)現增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)繼續(xu)收窄，降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)擴(kuo)大趨(qu)勢。
出口(kou)市場暫時也(ye)看不到好轉的跡象(xiang)。
市(shi)場進一(yi)步向國內優勢品(pin)牌集中。三(san)一(yi)重工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)繼續在(zai)挖掘機(ji)市(shi)場上通過搶占(zhan)日(ri)系和(he)(he)韓系品(pin)牌的(de)份(fen)額提高市(shi)場占(zhan)有(you)(you)率(lv)。柳工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)、廈工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)、龍工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)和(he)(he)臨(lin)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)在(zai)裝載機(ji)市(shi)場的(de)占(zhan)有(you)(you)率(lv)已經提高到(dao)66.89%。山推股份(fen)在(zai)推土(tu)機(ji)行(xing)業的(de)壟斷地(di)位繼續提升。市(shi)場占(zhan)有(you)(you)率(lv)達(da)到(dao)64.5%，同比增長(chang)了6 個百(bai)分(fen)點。起(qi)重機(ji)領域徐工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)和(he)(he)三(san)一(yi)的(de)市(shi)場份(fen)額提升，中聯由于對浦(pu)沅的(de)調整使其短期市(shi)場份(fen)額受到(dao)影(ying)響。工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程機(ji)械市(shi)場集中度進一(yi)步向優勢品(pin)牌集中。
投(tou)資建議：盡管工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)械估值將逐漸進入歷史低位(wei)，但仍(reng)然(ran)需(xu)要耐心等待(dai)下游需(xu)求的好轉。工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)械投(tou)資標的我們依然(ran)建議關注(zhu)具備品牌優勢的龍頭企(qi)業：三一重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)、徐工(gong)(gong)機(ji)械、中聯重(zhong)科、柳工(gong)(gong)。
